Football Match Calculator: Win, Draw and Goal Chances
Work out the chances for a Ghana Premier League, Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A or Champions League match. Enter each team's home or away record from the league table, then add bookmaker odds, recent form, cards and corners if you have them.
These figures are estimates from a statistical model and the numbers you enter. They are not betting tips, and no outcome is guaranteed. Football is unpredictable, and even bookmakers pick the winner of a match only around half the time.
What the calculator gives you
Home win, draw and away win chances with the fair decimal odds for each, the chance that both teams score, the chance of over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals, and the most likely scores. Add card, corner and penalty figures and it also gives the chance of over 3.5, 4.5 and 5.5 yellow cards, a red card, a penalty, and over 8.5, 9.5 and 10.5 corners. If you enter bookmaker odds, it shows the margin the bookmaker has built into them.
Those chances are also the honest test of a banker, the pick bettors treat as safe. A win the calculator rates at 85% still fails about one match in seven, which is why our guide to the banker in betting treats it as a confident pick, not a sure one.
How it works
The calculator models each team's goals with a Poisson distribution, the usual starting point for football score models. It builds each side's expected goals from its home or away scoring and conceding record, pulled towards the league average when only a few games have been played, so one big early result does not swing the numbers. Recent form, if you add it, adjusts those estimates. If you add the bookmaker's odds, it works out the goal expectations those odds imply and blends them with the table-based figures, because odds already carry injury and team news that a league table cannot show.
Where to find the numbers
- Open the league table on Flashscore or SofaScore. Switch to the Home view for the home team and the Away view for the away team.
- Copy games played, goals scored and goals conceded. League games only.
- For form, use the last five or six results in any competition, with that team's goals first.
- For odds, use decimal odds for this match from any bookmaker.
Corner statistics for the Ghana Premier League are not published reliably, so corners are switched off for that league.
What it cannot do
These are estimates from a statistical model and the numbers you enter, not betting tips, and no outcome is guaranteed. The calculator is separate from our bookmaker ratings and does not recommend a bet. If you do bet, decide your limit before you start, and see our responsible gambling page if betting stops being fun.
For the bookmakers we have tested with our own money, see our ranking of betting sites in Ghana.